Census consultation: Future provision of population statistics

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is launching a three month public consultation on the census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales today.

After each census, ONS reviews the future needs for information about the population and housing in England and Wales, and how these needs might be met.

Improvements in technology and in government data sources offer opportunities to either modernise the existing census process, or to develop an alternative census method that reuses existing data already held within government.

The ONS' research has resulted in two approaches for taking the census in future:

• a census once a decade, like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online
• a census using existing government data and compulsory annual surveys.

ONS believe that both approaches would provide annual statistics about the size of the population, nationally and for local authorities. A census using existing data and surveys would provide more statistics about the characteristics of the population every year. An online census would provide more detailed statistics once a decade.

The consultation document describes these approaches, their strengths and weaknesses and the different types of information they could provide:

http://ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations/consultations/beyond-2011-consultation/beyond-2011-consultation-doc-c1.pdf

No decision has yet been made, and we welcome your views. Please respond using the online questionnaire:

http://ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations/consultations/beyond-2011-consultation/index.html

CONTACTS

Queries relating to tables or the census in general should be addressed to: census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk.

Queries relating to boundaries/geography should be addressed to: ons.geography@ons.gov.uk

Dear colleagues [on behalf of Dave Martin and Paul Norman]

Understandably, only a few of us can invest much time in following the plans for future censuses and you may therefore be unaware of recent developments. If you are a user of small area census data, please read on and act if you can - there is a real risk of losing the small area census data that you currently take for granted.

ONS are currently undertaking research on potential replacements for the conventional census in 2021. Although that seems a very long way off, recommendations need to go before parliament next year and the preparatory work is already well advanced. Based on the series of roadshows run by ONS last autumn, they have not received convincing high-value use cases for small area population attributes. Arguments such as "they are used to target local services" are not sufficiently robust to stand up to the inevitable financial scrutiny. A leading option is to derive basic age/sex data from linked administrative records and to use social survey data to obtain the types of population attributes that would previously have been obtained from the census - (ethnicity, LLTI, tenure, car ownership, employment, etc.) This would clearly not deliver small area data of the current quality, if at all.

We are urgently appealing to the research community to have your say: if no case is made, it seems entirely likely that ONS will not be able to include generation of costly small area data as part of the recommended option. If you can demonstrate high-value research (and ideally high-valued impacts!) based on small area 2001 census data, please mail David Martin and Paul Norman (d.j.martin@soton.ac.uk, p.d.norman@leeds.ac.uk)  - we need to marshall further evidence by the end of February.

Ideally, we are seeking identifiable research with an estimate of value and impact and/or an indication of why it could not be done without high quality small area data. If you can supply a paper or URL where further details could be pursued, better still. NB This is about England and Wales, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will be reviewing the same issues in due course.

If you want to find out more about Beyond 2011, see http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/what-we-do/programmes---projects/beyond-2011/index.html Although there is not a formal consultation currently open, you can also mail them at beyond2011@ons.gsi.gov.uk

With many thanks,
David Martin, University of Southampton Email: D.J.Martin@soton.ac.uk
Paul Norman, University of Leeds Email: P.D.Norman@leeds.ac.uk

Beyond 2011 programme - National Records of Scotland public engagement events

The Beyond 2011 programme was initiated by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) to propose viable alternative options to the traditional census in Scotland. The census has long been the benchmark for capturing a comprehensive, consolidated and accurate snapshot of the population.  However, various sources indicate that the current system of providing population and key socio-demographic statistics is no longer meeting all user needs.  

The Beyond 2011 programme will produce an options paper for Scottish Government ministers, describing the work that has been completed in the research phase and detailing the options for the next phases. 

As part of this research phase, NRS need to determine what the user requirements are for producing small area population and socio-demographic statistics and would like to invite your views.  A series of public engagement events in the morning and afternoon (times to be confirmed) of the 19th and 21st February 2013 will be held at the Dome, New Register House, Edinburgh (http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/contacts/opentime/colormap.html). 

If you would like to attend or for more information please contact beyond2011@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk by the 21st January 2013 and state your preferred date and session. 

The Beyond 2011 programme also has a group on the Knowledge Hub which can be accessed from https://knowledgehub.local.gov.uk/group/scottishbeyond2011programmebeyond2011scotland.  Registration is required.

Beyond 2011 Census programme

You may be aware that the UK Statistics Authority has stated that the 2011 Census is likely to be the last of its kind in the UK.

The ‘Beyond 2011’ Programme has been established by the Office for National Statistics to take a fresh look at different approaches that will meet future user needs as an alternative to running a Census in 2021. This work, which covers England and Wales, has the potential to completely change the way we produce population and socio-demographic statistics for decades to come.

If you are interested in receiving updates on the progress of the Beyond 2011 Programme, or being involved in the consultation process which will run from October to December 2011, please email beyond2011@ons.gsi.gov.uk.